Which COVID-19 models are right, and which are wrong? We don’t know, that’s fine. Because as Zeynep Tufekci writes in The Atlantic today, “right answers are not what epidemiological models are for”. Tufekci, an associate professor at the...
Overall confirmed cases are a poor proxy for gauging where various countries are in their respective outbreaks. Active cases, although subject to under-reporting, is a better metric for determining which countries are facing the most severe outbreaks. View the entire...
There’s no shortage of models attempting to forecast COVID-19 cases and deaths. Here on CivicMeter, we’ve covered a few of the most prominent ones for our Modelpedia. But the numbers vary wildly, and it raises the question: why is it so hard to model a...
A professor at University of Texas at Austin has modeled the potential outcomes for Austin-area hospitals depending on the strictness of social intervention measures. The model, developed by Lauren Ancel Meyers, shows that the virus could overwhelm Austin-area...
A new tool from the University of Washington predicts when COVID-19 cases may peak in all 50 states, and what those peaks may look like in terms of deaths and hospital resource use. Although the forecasts already assumes a high level of protective measures like social...
Stanford statistics professor Jacob Steinhardt has presented a model that attempts to estimate COVID-19 infection prevalence in countries by using data from Singapore and Taiwan — two countries with heavy testing and public case data. [Find the GitHub here.]...