Several states with large Hispanic populations gained fewer seats than expected in this year’s Census results, according to election expert Dave Wasserman.
All three states that missed out on expected congressional gains from the 2020 census — Arizona, Florida and Texas — have big Hispanic populations, the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman tells Axios.
- Wasserman said the new tally, revealed at a Census Bureau press conference Monday, resulted in a smaller shift than had been forecast: just seven seats moved states, rather than the expected 10.
The bottom line: “Reapportionment itself means little compared to the redistricting fights to come,” Wasserman told Axios. “The bigger shift in House seats are likely to come from how districts are drawn, not how many districts each state gets.”
- “On balance, I think this reapportionment offers a small boost for Republicans, but the bigger boost is likely to come from how Republicans draw these seats in Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia.”